War and the Stock of Human Capital

Jorge M. Agüero Muhammad Farhan Majid October 2015 Abstract Previous studies have shown that wars restrict the acquisition of human capital. We expand this literature by exploring how the stock of human capital is affected by wars. Applying a “missing people” approach to the 1994 Rwanda genocide we find that the size of the educated cohort --those with completed primary school or more-shrunk by 39 percent relative to their less educated counterparts and compared to its size in 1991. This excess missing rate for the educated is not due to outmigration and contrasts with the patterns observed in other countries of the region and also with the pre-genocide trends in Rwanda. When the spatial variation in the intensity of the genocide is exploited there is no evidence of statistically significant differences, suggesting an aggregate effect from the genocide. We discuss how this reduction affects labor markets post-conflict and the returns to education. JEL-code: I20, J10, O12.